Former TV Asahi and journalist Toru Tamagawa appeared live on the station’s “Hatori Shinichi Morning Show” (Monday-Friday, 8:00 a.m.) on March 19, and explained the disadvantages to Japan that would result from a Chinese response to the Taiwan contingency. Prime Minister Sanae Koichi stated at the Budget Committee of the House of Representatives on March 7 that “a Taiwan contingency could be an existential crisis situation. Since recognition of an existential crisis situation means that the right of collective self-defense can be exercised, the Chinese side vehemently objected. On the 18th, Masaaki Kanai, Director General of the Asia and Pacific Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was asked by Liu Jingsong, Director General of the Asian Affairs Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to apologize for his remarks and withdraw them, but he refused. Conversely, he refuted the call for self-restraint in travel to Japan, saying, “The security situation in Japan has never worsened. The program reported on the economic impact on Japan resulting from the voluntary travel restraint. Nomura Research Institute estimated that if the number of visitors to Japan were to decrease by the same amount as during the Senkaku incident in 2012, the amount of consumption would decrease by 1.79 trillion yen. Mr. Tamagawa compared the degree of trade dependence between Japan and China. He said, “If you look at just the value of Japan’s trade with China, the amount of trade with China as a percentage of Japan’s total trade is over 20%. On the other hand, China’s trade with Japan is only 5 or 6%,” he noted. “We can see which side would be more troubled if trade were to stop. Further pressure from the Chinese side is also expected in the future. Mr. Tamagawa referred to China’s rare earths, which are said to account for nearly 50% of the world’s reserves. We have already stopped rare earths once before,” he said. It is also possible that China will use whatever logic it has this time. For example, if Japan says that it will intervene in an armed conflict in Taiwan, it means that Japanese weapons will be used against China. If that is the case, it is possible that Japan will reason that the use of rare earths, which are used for Japanese weapons, for China would be undesirable from an economic security standpoint. Japan would be in a very difficult situation if that were to happen.” He went on to say, “The government has to take all of these factors into consideration in its response, so it may be difficult to reach a settlement on what Prime Minister Takaichi has said.
